|My favorite way to play the odds in Vegas!|
Doing surgery now:
- 10-15% chance of new permanent neurological deficit, could be as simple as losing feeling in finger, or losing ability to move on left side of body.
- 93% chance of successful resection, or 7% chance of failure leading to likely bleeds in the future as its not fully removed
- 8-12% change of new permanent neurological deficit
- 95% chance of successful resection, or 5% chance of failure
In my review of case studies and discussion with those that have had surgery, I will for simplicity say that having a failure during the surgery is a bad outcome on par with acquiring a new deficit. Its a simplification but what is clear is that any brain surgery itself is a traumatic event and requires lots of rehabilitation (many months or more in some cases), and unknown consequences. Some people even have stokes during their brain surgery or as a result of!
So to boil this down and oversimplify:
- Now: 17-22% chance of poor surgical outcome (22% pessimistic)
- Ideal: 13-17% chance of poor surgical outcome (17% pessimistic)
Data on getting new problems from these bleeds is scant, but seems about 1/5-1/3 of these can result in a new permanent neurological deficit, so we might be looking at 4-10% annual chance initially of acquiring a new permanent deficit from the CM, and declining from there if it stabilizes, and a series of years might look like 7%, 4%, 4%, 2%, 2%, ... -- on acquiring a new permanent deficit from a new bleed.
So the trick here seems to pray for the best, hope it stabilizes, help it stabilize, etc. No?